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Thursday, January 15, 2026
RECESSION RISK SCOREX/15 triggered
55/100
— no change today
ELEVATED
SAFEMODERATEELEVATEDHIGHCRITICAL
ECONOMIC PHASE
Pre-Recession
Watching for signals
ASSESSMENT
Elevated risk. Warning signs building.
S&P 500
6,XXX
+X.X%
VIX
XX.X
-X.X
Unemployment
X.X%
Yield Curve
+X.XX%
Score AnalysisAI
Updated when score changes
Today's score reflects continued elevated risk in the economic landscape. The model is tracking several key indicators that suggest caution is warranted.
The yield curve has recently un-inverted, which historically precedes recession by 6-18 months. Combined with weakening consumer sentiment and tightening credit conditions...
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Recession Risk Score
<35: Low50-65: Elevated>65: High Risk
VIX Fear Index
<15: Complacent15-25: Normal>30: Fear
Warning Signals
X/15 triggeredYield CurveXX/100
Recently un-inverted — watching closely
Fed PolicyXX/100
Restrictive stance — slowing growth
Consumer SentimentXX/100
Below average — consumers worried
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