Know when the recession is coming.
Plan for what comes after.
Get a simple dashboard that scores recession risk 0-100, tracks 20+ economic indicators, and sends you daily AI analysis at 9 AM PST. Protect your investments before the mainstream media catches on.
Navigate the Entire Economic Cycle
Recessionist Pro doesn't just warn you about crashes—it guides you through every phase so you can protect wealth AND grow it.
BEFORE
- → Reduce risk exposure
- → Move to defensive ETFs
- → Build cash reserves
- → Watch credit spreads widen
DURING
- → Stay defensive
- → Watch for bottom signals
- → Prepare buy list
- → Don't panic sell
AFTER
- → Rotate into growth
- → Buy quality at discount
- → Ride the recovery wave
- → Track cycle restart
Missing the market bottom by just a few weeks could cost you 20-30% in returns.
The S&P 500 gained 68% in the 12 months after the March 2009 bottom. Don't rely on gut feelings—use data.
Your Time Is Valuable
You have a job, a life, and better things to do than watch hours of rambling content.
to keep up
- ✗ Hour-long rambling livestreams
- ✗ 50+ video course modules
- ✗ Daily "must-watch" alerts
- ✗ Discord channels to monitor
- ✗ Homework and quizzes
that's it
- ✓ One dashboard, all indicators
- ✓ Daily summary tells you what changed
- ✓ Clear risk score: high, medium, low
- ✓ No videos to watch
- ✓ Check it and get on with your day
The Problem With "Financial Gurus"
Technical Analysis Voodoo
Drawing lines on charts and calling it "analysis." Head and shoulders, cup and handle—it's pattern recognition dressed up as science.
Crypto Casino Mindset
"This altcoin is going to 100x!" Meanwhile, they're selling you the bags they bought last week. Entertainment, not investing.
Outrageous Pricing
$3,000/year for someone's opinion? $50/month for daily "signals"? They're making money from you, not from investing.
Compare For Yourself
See what you're actually paying for with other services vs. what you get with Recessionist Pro.
- ✓ 20+ live indicators
- ✓ Daily data updates
- ✓ Recession risk score
- ✓ Political risk model
- ✓ Daily written analysis
- ✗ Crypto-only focus
- ✗ Constantly shifts "base case"
- ✗ Moves goalposts to seem right
- ✗ ETH $5K prediction failed
- ✗ "Lengthening cycles" disproven
- ✗ Past theories proved wrong
- ✗ Clickbait thumbnails
- ✗ Rambling livestreams
- ✗ Personality-driven
- ✗ Outrageously expensive
- ✗ Mostly chart patterns
- ✗ Constant upsells
* Competitor pricing based on publicly available information as of 2025. Features and pricing may change. Comparisons reflect our subjective editorial opinions. We encourage you to research all options.
You Could Save $4,500+
By not wasting money on overpriced courses. Here's the math:
*Hypothetical example for illustration only. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Average recession recoveries based on historical S&P 500 data. Your results will vary.
Real Data. Real Analysis. Real Results.
We don't predict the future. We show you the present clearly so you can make your own informed decisions.
Live Observable Data
Every indicator comes from FRED, Yahoo Finance, and official sources. You can verify everything we show you. No black boxes.
Macroeconomic Focus
Yield curves, unemployment, credit spreads, Fed policy—the indicators that actually predict recessions, not candlestick patterns.
Political Risk Modeling
8 of the last 10 recessions occurred under specific political conditions. We track what others ignore: policy uncertainty, trade tensions, fiscal risk.
No Technical Analysis
We don't draw triangles on charts and call it science. No "support levels," no "resistance zones," no astrology for traders.
One Clear Score
Our Recession Risk Score (0-100) distills complex data into actionable insight. Know exactly where we are in the economic cycle.
Daily Written Analysis
Every day at 9 AM PST: what changed, what matters, and what to watch. Human-readable insights, not data dumps.
Everything You Get With Pro
One subscription. All features. No upsells.
Live Dashboard
Real-time recession risk score and 20+ indicators.
→ Know where you stand in seconds
Historical Charts
See how indicators behaved before past recessions.
→ Anticipate similar patterns
Daily Analysis
AI-generated breakdown at 9 AM PST every day.
→ Stay informed in 5 minutes
Phase Detection
Know if we're in pre-recession, in-recession, or recovery.
→ Adjust your strategy accordingly
Early Warnings
See indicators flashing red before mainstream news.
→ Move before the crowd panics
Education Built-In
Tooltips explain every indicator in plain English.
→ No finance degree needed
Pro Blog
Exclusive articles on market strategy and recession playbooks.
→ Deep dives when you want them
Investment Ideas
Phase-specific ETF watchlists for each economic cycle.
→ Know what to buy and when
18-Year Real Estate Cycle
Track the cycle that predicted 1990 and 2008 crashes.
→ See where we are: Year 17 of 18
Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle
Days since bottom, Bull Market Support Band tracking.
→ Time crypto exits with data
Report Archive
Access every past report and analysis.
→ Track our accuracy over time
No Upsells Ever
$29/month gets you everything. No premium tiers.
→ One price, all features
How the Model Works
Transparent methodology. No secrets. No magic.
1. Collect Live Data
Every day, we pull fresh data from the Federal Reserve (FRED), Treasury, BLS, and market sources. No stale data, no estimates.
2. Score Each Indicator
Each of our 20+ indicators gets a score (0-100) based on historical recession thresholds. Inverted yield curve? High score. Low VIX? Low score.
3. Apply the "Recessionist Override"
Official data misses things: housing affordability, political risk, late-cycle dynamics. We add a Data Integrity Modifier (DIM%) to account for what the Fed doesn't measure.
4. Calculate Final Score
Weighted combination of raw data score + DIM% = Recessionist Score. Simple, reproducible, and backtested against every recession since 2000.
This Isn't AI Slop
I didn't ask ChatGPT to "make me a recession predictor." This model is the result of 8+ years of market experience and months of development.
The Experience Behind It
Watched every cycle, every "guru," every failed prediction. Learned what actually works and what's just noise.
From Bitcoin YouTubers to macro hedge fund managers. I noted what they got right, what they missed, and why.
Reading Fed papers, studying past recessions, understanding what indicators actually predicted crashes vs. which were noise.
The Technical Build
Direct connections to FRED, Treasury, Yahoo Finance, and more. Not scraped data—real institutional-grade feeds.
Each indicator's weight was calibrated against historical recessions. Not arbitrary—backtested against real data.
My own addition: political uncertainty, tariff risk, fiscal dysfunction. Things other models completely ignore.
What Makes This Different
I didn't ask AI to "build a recession model." This took months of iteration, testing, and refinement.
I selected indicators based on what actually predicted past recessions—not what looks impressive on a dashboard.
Built by someone who's been through multiple cycles, lost money, made money, and learned the hard lessons.
About Recessionist
Tom Spark
Creator of Recessionist Pro
Recessionist is created by Tom Spark, a respected software reviewer with over 10 years on YouTube. Tom is a full-time developer and reviewer who has built products used by hundreds of thousands of people.
His track record includes creating VPN Tier Lists—the world's first VPN community review system—and Tom Spark News Reader, the first privacy-based algorithmic news feed.
Recessionist Pro is an AI-powered economic model built from the ground up. Tom created it for himself first, then decided to share it with his viewers who were asking the same question: "When is the recession coming?"
"I got tired of watching financial guides on YouTube with clickbait content, no understanding of political risk, and mainly just there to sell expensive courses with hours of boring videos that have no real value to the average busy person. So I built something better."
— Tom Spark
Why Tom Built This
Who Is This For?
Recessionist Pro is built for people who want to stay informed without becoming full-time market watchers.
Busy Professionals
You have a career and family. You can't watch the market all day. Get the important stuff in 5-10 minutes each morning.
DIY Investors
You manage your own portfolio but want data-driven guidance. Know when to go defensive and when to buy the dip.
Homeowners & Savers
You want to protect what you've built. Track the 18-year real estate cycle and know when the next correction is coming.
How You'll Use It
Web Dashboard
Access from any device. See all indicators, charts, and analysis in one place.
Daily at 9 AM PST
Fresh analysis every morning. Know what changed overnight and what to watch.
5-10 Minutes
Check the score, read the summary, get on with your day. That's it.
What the Daily Analysis Looks Like
Here's a real excerpt from a recent report. Subscribers get this every morning.
Today's Assessment: The model remains in PRE-RECESSION phase with a score of 55/100. This places us firmly in the "elevated risk" zone—not imminent crisis, but the warning signs are accumulating.
Key Changes: Credit spreads tightened slightly to 309 bps (from 312), which is constructive short-term. However, the yield curve has been normalized for 3+ months—historically, recessions often begin 6-18 months after normalization, not during inversion.
What to Watch: Unemployment at 4.3% and trending higher is the key metric. The Sahm Rule triggers at 4.5%. We're close. If Friday's jobs report surprises to the upside, risk sentiment could improve...
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