Is a Recession Coming?
Hard data meets macro intuition. 20+ indicators combined with political awareness, crypto cycle expertise, and economic prediction — not just numbers, but judgment.
Built for macro-focused investors
Receipts
Proven Track Record
We don't just analyze — we call it before it happens. Every prediction below was made publicly, with dates.
Inside the Dashboard
See What You Get
Data, intuition, and expertise — combined into one platform. Real screenshots from the live dashboard.
Live Recession Probability Score
One number, 0-100. Fed data + labor signals + political risk + crypto cycles + macro intuition — weighted and calibrated by experience, not just algorithms.
AI Portfolio Performance
The safest auto-portfolio beats the S&P 500 on its own — but the model also recommends specific defensive stocks that have returned 7–18%. This is just the baseline.
AI-Generated Score Analysis
Every score change explained in plain English. What moved, why it matters, and what to watch next — written by AI, grounded in the data.
Talk to the Model — AI Chat
Ask the model anything. "What's driving the score?" "What if unemployment hits 5%?" Get instant answers grounded in live indicator data — included with your subscription.
Real-Time Warning Signals
ADP employment, manufacturing hours, and credit health — scored and contextualized. See which indicators are flashing before the headlines catch up.
15+ Indicators, Scored & Color-Coded
Every data point categorized as Elevated or Healthy with live values. From Fed Funds to VIX, from credit spreads to consumer sentiment — all in one view.
S&P 500 Scenario Forecasts
Multi-scenario projections with probability weights. Soft landing, recession, and severe recession paths — tracked against actual market performance.
Individual Stock Scenarios
NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple, Amazon, AMD — each with macro-derived scenario analysis. See how recession probability translates to specific price targets.
Actionable Portfolio Positioning
Regime-based allocation guidance. Timeline to recession, defensive vs offensive stance, and suggested asset splits — updated as the score changes.
Live Market Tracker
Top 50 S&P 500 stocks updated every 5 minutes. Price, change, volume, and 52-week range — all without leaving the dashboard.
Methodology
What the Score Tracks
Sources: FRED · U.S. Treasury · CBOE · BLS · ADP · Yahoo Finance · + macro intuition & political context
Why Now
The Problem With Waiting
$20/month after trial. Cancel anytime.
Platform
Everything in One Dashboard
Assess recession risk in under 5 minutes.
Recession Score
0-100 composite. 20+ weighted indicators.
Indicator Breakdown
Each signal scored and color-coded.
AI Analysis
What changed and why, in plain English.
18-Month Forecasts
S&P, NVDA, TSLA, bonds, gold, BTC.
Regime Guidance
5 zones with allocation + ETF ideas.
Talk to the Model
AI chat grounded in live indicator data.
Congressional Trades
1,050+ trades from 63 politicians.
Process
How It Works
Who This Is For
- Investors who want early warning signals
- People managing real portfolios
- Anyone skeptical of surface-level optimism
- Day traders looking for hot picks
- People who want to be told what to buy
- Anyone who ignores macro entirely
Frequently Asked
See What the Data Says
The data is already moving. The question is whether you see it in time.