Understand economic cycles, recession indicators, and how to protect your finances. No hype, just clear explanations.
Trailing stop-loss orders protect gains by adjusting upward with rising prices, but volatility can trigger premature exits. Learn the optimal percentage levels and technical filters that keep you in winning trades longer.
The best macro tracking tools for individual investors include FRED for free economic data, TradingView for technical analysis, and specialized services like Recessionist Pro for recession indicators. These platforms help retail investors monitor economic trends without requiring institutional-level subscriptions.
A recession score model calculates risk by weighting multiple economic indicators against historical recession patterns, typically producing a 0-100 scale where scores above 70 indicate elevated recession probability within 12-18 months.
Recession probability models combine 3-12 economic indicators using statistical methods like probit regression and machine learning to generate risk scores. Most dashboards weight yield curve inversions, unemployment changes, and leading indicators to predict recessions 6-18 months ahead with 70-85% accuracy.
With 12 of 15 economic indicators in warning territory, only three remain healthy: yield curve, average hours worked, and the bond vigilante spread. This analysis examines what would push these final indicators into the red and trigger an official recession declaration.
The FRED database provides free access to over 800,000 economic data series from the St. Louis Fed. Learn to navigate FRED's tools, create custom charts, and track key recession indicators like unemployment rates and yield curves for smarter investment decisions.
Recessionist Pro monitors 15 economic indicators daily and gives you a simple 0-100 recession risk score. Know where we are in the economic cycle at a glance.
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