Congress Is Selling 3.5x More Than They're Buying — Here's What 1,050 Trades Reveal

We analyzed 1,050 congressional trades from 63 politicians covering October 2024 through February 2026 — and the big picture is alarming. While the number of buy and sell transactions is nearly equal (558 buys vs 479 sells), the dollar volume tells a completely different story: $52.2 million in sells versus just $14.9 million in buys. Congress is buying small and selling big. When the people with the best information in the country are heading for the exits, it's worth paying attention.

This analysis uses disclosure data from Capitol Trades, covering all publicly reported congressional stock transactions. Trade types include stock purchases, partial sales, full sales, and options (calls and puts). Every data point here is public record — politicians are required by law to disclose their trades within 45 days, though the actual average delay in our dataset was 83 days.

The Sell Pressure Is Real — And It's Concentrated

Looking at trades disclosed since January 15, 2026, the numbers break down like this:

• 326 buy trades totaling $14.9 million
• 294 sell trades totaling $52.2 million

That means 78% of all dollar volume is on the sell side. Congress is buying slightly more often, but selling 3.5x more by dollar value. The big-money moves are exits, not entries. When insiders sell big and buy small, it historically precedes market weakness — and this is the most lopsided sell-to-buy ratio we've seen in recent data.

The Pelosi Factor: $42 Million in Liquidations

Nancy Pelosi (via her husband Paul) has the most legendary track record in congressional trading: +16,930% total return over 37 years, beating the S&P 500 by 581%. In 2024 alone, her portfolio returned +70.9% versus the S&P's +24.9%. She is, by any measure, the most successful congressional trader of the last decade.

She also announced retirement and is leaving office in January 2027. Here's what she's doing with her portfolio:

Pelosi's Sells (December 2024)

• AAPL: Two separate sales, $5M–$25M each
• AMZN: $1M–$5M sale
• GOOGL: $1M–$5M sale
• NVDA: $1M–$5M sale
• DIS: $1M–$5M sale
• PYPL: $250K–$500K sale

Pelosi's Buys (December 2024 – January 2025)

• AMZN call options: $500K–$1M
• GOOGL call options: $500K–$1M
• AAPL call options: $250K–$500K
• NVDA call options: $250K–$500K
• VST call options: $100K–$250K
• TEM call options: $50K–$100K

The pattern is clear: Pelosi is selling $42M+ in stock (unwinding core positions) while buying ~$2.5M in call options (keeping leveraged upside exposure). This is a textbook retirement portfolio unwind — locking in gains on the equity, keeping small speculative bets. Don't mistake the options buys for bullish conviction; the net direction is overwhelmingly selling.

How Are Those Options Doing?

Since she bought these calls, most of the underlying stocks have declined:

• AMZN: Down 16.6% — options estimated ~83% loss (near wipeout)
• GOOGL: Down 8.3% — options estimated ~41% loss
• TEM: Down 23.2% — options likely wiped out entirely
• NVDA: Down 2.0% — options estimated ~10% loss
• VST: Up 8.0% — options estimated ~40% gain (the one winner)
• AAPL: Flat at +0.1% — options roughly flat

Even the best congressional trader in history isn't immune to market timing risk — especially with leveraged options positions. The takeaway isn't that Pelosi lost her touch. It's that she sold $42 million in stock before these declines happened, and the small options bets were just speculative lottery tickets.

Cluster Signals: What Are They ALL Buying?

When multiple politicians independently buy the same stock, it's a stronger signal than any individual trade. These are the current consensus picks with 5 different politicians buying each:

• MSFT — Mullin, Taylor, McGuire, Boozman, Cisneros
• AMZN — Mullin, Cisneros, Taylor, Pelosi, Boozman
• NVDA — Mullin, Cisneros, McGuire, Pelosi, Boozman
• AAPL — Mullin, Boozman, Taylor, Pelosi, Cisneros

Four additional stocks had 4 politicians buying: META, JPM, GOOGL, and ETN (Eaton Corp). RTX (Raytheon) had 3 politicians buying.

The strongest cluster is around big tech — and notably, these are bipartisan buys (both parties buying), which historically is an even stronger signal. The non-obvious picks are worth watching: ETN (industrial/electrical equipment) and RTX (defense) suggest confidence in infrastructure and defense spending, likely from committee-aligned members with visibility into upcoming legislation.

Politicians to Watch After Pelosi

With Pelosi retiring, who are the next congressional traders worth tracking?

• Markwayne Mullin (R-OK, Senate) — 41 buys vs 10 sells, $2.2M in buy volume. Most active buyer in the dataset. On Armed Services and Environment committees. Diversified across industrials, pharma, financials, and defense.
• Katie Britt (R-AL, Senate) — 12 buys, zero sells. All conviction, no hedging. Banking Committee member buying JPM, GOOGL, V.
• Cleo Fields (D-LA, House) — 7 buys, zero sells. Buying GOOGL, META, NFLX, TSM. Tech-focused conviction.
• Sheri Biggs (R, House) — 7 buys, zero sells. $624K in buy volume with no offsetting sales.
• Gilbert Cisneros (D, House) — 99 buys vs 51 sells. Most active trader by volume. Roughly balanced dollar-wise ($1.6M buys vs $1.7M sells).

The pattern with new buyers like Britt, Fields, and Biggs is striking — 100% buy, zero sells. Whether that reflects genuine conviction or simply the early stages of portfolio building, their unanimity is notable.

Does Copying Congress Actually Make Money?

We ran a historical backtest entering trades on disclosure date (realistic — no time travel) using a scoring algorithm that weights trade size, politician track record, cluster consensus, committee alignment, and other factors. The results over 42 days with 8 trades:

• Total return: +3.65% (75% win rate)
• Sharpe ratio: 3.28
• Profit factor: 8.09
• S&P 500 over same period: -0.87%
• Nasdaq over same period: -2.60%

That's +4.52% alpha over the S&P 500 and +6.25% alpha over the Nasdaq. Promising, but with a massive caveat: 8 trades over 42 days is far too small a sample for statistical confidence. A proper validation needs 100+ trades over 1-2 years.

What Actually Works (And What Doesn't)

Strategies That Show Promise

• Cluster detection — when 3+ politicians buy the same stock, it signals genuine consensus, not random noise
• Committee-aligned trades — Armed Services members buying defense stocks, Finance Committee members buying banks. This is where the real information asymmetry lives.
• Aggregate sell signals — congressional selling by dollar volume is a useful macro sentiment indicator
• Long-term tracking of top performers — Pelosi's 10-year track record proves persistent alpha exists for certain politicians

What Doesn't Work

• Blindly copying individual trades — too much noise, and the politician may have information context you can't see
• Mirroring options leverage — Pelosi's recent calls are down 40-100%. Leverage amplifies losses equally.
• Short-term trading based on disclosures — the 83-day average disclosure delay makes short-term strategies nearly impossible. By the time you know about the trade, the edge may already be priced in.

The 83-Day Problem

This is the elephant in the room. Politicians are legally required to disclose trades within 45 days, but the actual average delay in our dataset is 83 days. They're routinely filing late with minimal consequences. Academic research shows congressional trades outperform by 1-2% annualized after disclosure — but the real alpha happens between the trade date and the disclosure date.

By the time retail investors can see and act on a congressional trade, they're chasing information that's nearly three months old. This structural limitation is the single biggest challenge in any congressional trading strategy.

What This Means for Your Portfolio

The data paints a mixed but important picture. On the bearish side: the people with arguably the best economic information in the country are net selling by a 3.5:1 ratio, and the most successful congressional trader in history is liquidating $42 million in core positions. On the bullish side: there's strong bipartisan consensus buying in big tech, and newer members are deploying capital with 100% conviction.

The most actionable takeaway isn't about copying specific trades — it's about using congressional trading data as a sentiment indicator. When aggregate selling by dollar volume accelerates, it's a warning sign worth factoring into your broader risk assessment. When you see bipartisan cluster buys, particularly from committee-aligned members, those stocks deserve a closer look.

Congressional trading data won't make you rich overnight. But as one data point among many in your economic analysis toolkit, it adds a layer of insight that most retail investors completely ignore.

This analysis is for educational and research purposes only. It is not financial advice. Congressional disclosure amounts are reported in ranges, not exact figures. Options impact estimates use approximate leverage assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consider your individual financial situation before making investment decisions.